Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
